Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street pada akhir pekan lalu ditutup melemah. Indeks S&P500 mencapai level terendah baru selama tahun 2022. Indeks Dow Jones ditutup di bawah level 29000 untuk pertama kalinya sejak November 2020. Selama bulan September lalu, indeks Dow Jones melemah 8,8%, indeks S&P500 turun 9,3% dan Nasdaq Composite koreksi 10,5%. Selama Q3 2022, masing-masing indeks juga mengalami koreksi, yaitu indeks Dow Jones -6,7%, indeks S&P500 -5,3% dan Nasdaq Composite -4,1%. Pada hari Jumat lalu dirilis data inflasi yang menjadi indikator The Fed, yaitu indeks PCE prices, yang menunjukkan laju inflasi bulan Agustus sebesar 0,3% mom, di atas estimasi 0,2% mom. Secara yoy, indeks PCE prices bulan Agustus menjadi 6,2% yoy, turun dibandingkan Juli 6,4% yoy, karena turunnya harga minyak mentah. Namun untuk inflasi di luar makanan dan energi justru mengalami kenaikan, yaitu 0,6% mom dari sebelumnya 0,1% mom dan 4,9% yoy dari 4,7% yoy.

Data ekonomi AS yang akan dirilis pada pekan ini diantaranya ISM manufacturing index, ISM non manufacturing index, ADP Employment change, nonfarm payrolls dan unemployment rate. Sedangkan dari domestik, akan dirilis data inflasi bulan September, indeks PMI manufaktur dan cadangan devisa September 2022.

IHSG pada perdagangan Jumat 30 September 2022 ditutup menguat 0,06% pada level 7040. Saham sektor kesehatan membukukan kenaikan terbesar, sedangkan saham sektor properti mengalami koreksi terbesar. Investor asing net buy Rp236,89 miliar termasuk transaksi di pasar non regular. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 6972/6903 dan resistance 7075/7100. Stock pick: BBCA, BMRI, BBRI, TLKM, ADRO, INCO, PGAS, PTBA

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