Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup melemah akibat kekhawatiran bahwa The Fed akan melanjutkan kebijakan kenaikan suku bunga yang berpotensi akan mendorong terjadinya resesi ekonomi. Indeks ISM sektor jasa yang lebih baik dari estimasi menimbulkan kekhawatiran investor bahwa The Fed masih akan melanjutkan kenaikan suku bunga lebih lama dari perkiraan sebelumnya. Hal ini membuat yield US-Treasury juga mengalami kenaikan. Betdasarkan pidato Chairman The Fed Jerome Powell pekan lalu yang menyatakan akan menurunkan laju kenaikan suku bunga, pasar berharap pada Desember ini kenaikan suku bunga akan sebesar 0,5%, lebih rendah dari empat pertemuan sebelumnya yang secara berturut-turut The Fed menaikkan suku bunga sebesar 0,75%. Namun Powell juga menyatakan bahwa terminal rate kenaikan suku bunga berpotensi akan lebih tinggi dari perkiraan sebelumnya. Sehingga hal tersebut dapat berarti bahwa target fed fund rate dapat mencapai lebih dari 5%, lebih tinggi dari proyeksi sebelumnya yang berada pada kisaran 3,75%-4%.

IHSG pada perdagangan Senin 5 Desember 2022 ditutup melemah 0,46% pada level 6987. Saham sektor teknologi mengalami pelemahan terbesar, sedangkan saham sektor energi membukukan penguatan terbesar. Investor asing net sell Rp1,635 triliun termasuk transaksi di pasar non regular. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 6960/6900 dan resistance 7020/7050. Stock pick: BMRI, BBNI, TINS, ADMR, MDKA, SMGR, INDF, ICBP

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