Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street pada akhir pekan lalu ditutup melemah yang antara lain disebabkan oleh berlanjutnya profit taking, koreksi saham Apple dan data nonfarm payrolls yang mix. Data nonfarm payrolls bulan Juli tercatat sebanyak 187 ribu orang, lebih rendah dari estimasi yang sebanyak 200 ribu orang. Tingkat pengangguran turun dari 3,6% menjadi 3,5%. Namun tingkat upah rata-rata per jam naik 0,4%, lebih tinggi dari perkiraan yang sebesar 0,3%. Data tersebut mengindikasikan pasar tenaga kerja masih cukup ketat, sehingga menimbulkan kekhawatiran pasar bahwa The Fed masih akan melakukan langkah untuk meredam inflasi. Namun yield US Treasury dengan tenor 10 tahun mengalami penurunan. Selanjutnya pasar akan menantikan data inflasi pada pekan ini untuk mencari indikasi kebijakan moneter The Fed pada pertemuan September mendatang.

Data ekonomi AS yang akan dirilis pada pekan ini diantaranya CPI, initial claims, PPI dan Michigan Consumer Sentiment. Dari domestik, data ekonomi yang akan dirilis diantaranya pertumbuhan ekonomi Q2 2022, cadangan devisa, indeks keyakinan konsumen dan penjualan otomotif.

IHSG pada perdagangan Jumat 4 Agustus 2023 ditutup melemah 0,66% pada level 6852. Saham sektor teknologi mengalami koreksi terbesar, sedangkan saham sektor properti membukukan kenaikan terbesar. Investor asing mencatatkan net sell Rp469,08 miliar termasuk transaksi di pasar non reguler. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 6840/6810 dan resistance 6880/6925. Stock pick: BBNI, BMRI, INDY, ACES, BSDE, AALI, LSIP, ICBP, ADRO, PTBA, CTRA

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