Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street kembali ditutup melemah pada perdagangan kemarin. Kenaikan yield obligasi pemerintah AS menjadi sentimen negatif. Yield US-Treasury dengan tenor 10 tahun naik pada level 3,8%. Sedangkan yield US-Treasury dengan 2 tahun mencapai level 4,2%. Pasar menantikan data nonfarm payrolls yang akan dirilis nanti malam. Pasar akan mencermati apakah kenaikan suku bunga The Fed yang agresif mulai berpengaruh terhadap penyerapan tenaga kerja pada bulan September. Namun menurut konsensus, data nonfarm payrolls diperkirakan akan naik 275 ribu dan tingkat pengangguran tetap pada level 3,7%. Jika data yang dirilis lebih baik dari perkiraan, justru akan meningkatkan kekhawatiran bahwa The Fed masih akan melanjutkan kenaikan suku bunga yang agresif. Data ADP Employment bulan September yang dirilis Rabu lalu masih menunjukkan pasar tenaga kerja yang kuat. Namun data initial claims pekan lalu yang dirilis kemarin lebih banyak dari perkiraan, yang mengindikasikan beberapa pasar tenaga kerja mulai melemah.

IHSG pada perdagangan Kamis 6 Oktober 2022 ditutup menguat 0,02% pada level 7076. Saham sektor teknologi membukukan kenaikan terbesar, sedangkan saham sektor industri mengalami koreksi terbesar. Investor asing net buy Rp4,056 triliun termasuk transaksi di pasar non regular senilai Rp4,39 triliun atas saham LINK, sehingga untuk pasar regular saja terjadi net sell oleh investor asing senilai Rp334,24 miliar. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 7050/7010 dan resistance 7135/7178. Stock pick: BBNI, BMRI, ARTO, INCO, KLBF, ADMR

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