Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street pada akhir pekan lalu ditutup melemah di tengah data nonfarm payrolls yang di bawah estimasi serta ekspektasi The Fed akan menaikkan suku bunga lagi pada pertemuan Juli ini. Data nonfarm payrolls pada bulan Juni tercatat penyerapan tenaga kerja sebanyak 209 ribu orang, turun dari bulan Mei yang sebanyak 306 ribu orang serta lebih rendah dari perkiraan yang sebanyak 225 ribu orang. Data nonfarm payrolls ini merupakan yang terendah sejak Desember 2020. Namun rata-rata upah per jam naik 4,4% yoy, di atas perkiraan yang sebesar 4,2% yoy. Kenaikan upah ini menimbulkan kekhawatiran bahwa inflasi tidak turun dengan cepat dan membuat The Fed masih akan menaikkan suku bunga. Di sisi lain, data nonfarm payrolls yang melemah tersebut meningkatkan harapan bahwa The Fed tidak akan menaikkan suku bunga pada September. Hal ini mendorong kenaikan pada saham sektor energi karena jika The Fed menghentikan kenaikan suku bunga akan mengurangi potensi resesi dan mendorong kenaikan permintaan minyak mentah. Harga emas juga menguat karena pelemahan dollar AS dan yield US-Treasury.

Data ekonomi AS yang akan dirilis pada pekan ini diantaranya CPI, PPI dan initial claims. Dari domestik, data ekonomi yang akan dirilis diantaranya indeks keyakinan konsumen, penjualan mobil dan penjualan sepeda motor.

IHSG pada perdagangan Jumat 7 Juli 2023 ditutup melemah 0,60% pada level 6716. Saham sektor transportasi mengalami koreksi terbesar, sedangkan saham sektor basic materials membukukan penguatan terbesar. Investor asing mencatatkan net buy Rp38,44 miliar termasuk transaksi di pasar non reguler. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 6696/6675 dan resistance 6744/6760. Stock pick: ASII, AKRA, SMGR, INTP, ESSA, NCKL, TKIM, TINS

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