Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street pada akhir pekan lalu ditutup melemah signifikan setelah data nonfarm payrolls dan tingkat pengangguran AS bulan September lebih baik dibandingkan estimasi. Data nonfarm payrolls bulan September mencatat penyerapan tenaga kerja sebanyak 263 ribu, turun dari bulan sebelumnya yang sebesar 315 ribu, namun di atas konsensus yang sebesar 250 ribu. Tingkat pengangguran turun pada level 3,5% dari 3,7%, di atas perkiraan yang tetap pada level 3,7%. Hal tersebut menimbulkan kekhawatiran bahwa The Fed akan melanjutkan kenaikan suku bunganya secara agresif untuk menurunkan inflasi, karena data ekonomi masih cukup kuat meskipun suku bunga sudah naik beberapa kali. Akibatnya yield US-Treasury dengan tenor 2 tahun kembali naik pada level 4,316%. Harga emas mengalami penurunan akibat ekspektasi akan berlanjutnya kenaikan suku bunga The Fed. Sedangkan harga minyak mentah WTI menguat di atas USD90/barel, melanjutkan tren kenaikan setelah OPEC+ sepakat untuk menurunkan produksi sebanyak 2 juta bpd yang semakin memperketat suplay minyak mentah.

Data ekonomi AS yang akan dirilis pada pekan ini diantaranya PPI, CPI dan retail sales. Dari domestik, pada pekan ini dijadwalkan akan dirilis data indeks keyakinan konsumen, penjualan ritel dan penjualan otomotif.

IHSG pada perdagangan Jumat 7 Oktober 2022 ditutup melemah 0,70% pada level 7026. Saham sektor infrastruktur mengalami koreksi terbesar, sedangkan saham sektor energi membukukan kenaikan terbesar. Investor asing net sell Rp1,301 triliun termasuk transaksi di pasar non regular. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 6995/6950 dan resistance 7080/7130. Stock pick: BMRI, BBTN, ADRO, KLBF, TPIA, INCO, PTBA, ANTM

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