Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup menguat tajam setelah data inflasi AS bulan Oktober meningkatkan harapan bahwa inflasi AS telah mencapai level tertinggjnya dan akan segera melandai. Data inflasi Oktober tercatat sebesar 0,4% mom dan 7,7% yoy, merupakan level terendah sejak Januari 2022 dan lebih rendah dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya yang sebesar 8,2% yoy serta lebih rendah dibandingkan estimasi yang sebesar 0,6% mom dan 7,9% yoy. Inflasi inti tercatat sebesar 0,3% mom dan 6,3% yoy, yang juga di bawah estimasi. Yield US-Treasury dengan tenor 10 tahun turun 30 basis poin pada level 3,81% dan demikian juga dengan tenor 2 tahun turun sekitar 30 basis poin pada level 4,32%. Turunnya inflasi AS tersebut kembali meningkatkan harapan pasar bahwa The Fed akan segera memperlambat kenaikan suku bunganya. Dollar AS juga mengalami penurunan terbesar harian sejak tahun 2019 terhadap mayoritas mata uang utama lainnya. Saham sektor teknologi yang selama ini paling tertekan akibat kenaikan suku bunga, menguat memimpin penguatan indeks. Sementara itu harga minyak mentah rebound karena harapan The Fed akan memperlambat kenaikan suku bunganya, menutupi kekhawatiran akan turunnya permintaan dari China. Sedangkan harga emas menguat tajam pada level tertinggi selama dua bulan terakhir.

IHSG pada perdagangan Kamis 10 November 2022 ditutup melemah 1,46% pada level 6966. Semua sektor melemah dengan pelemahan terbesar pada saham sektor transportasi. Investor asing net sell Rp897,76 miliar termasuk transaksi di pasar non regular. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 6925/6847 dan resistance 7020/7050. Stock pick: BBCA, BBNI, EMTK, SCMA, SMGR, INTP, TLKM, ISAT, MYOR

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