Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street pada akhir pekan lalu ditutup melemah signifikan akibat data inflasi bulan Mei mengalami kenaikan lebih cepat dari perkiraan serta indeks sentiment konsumen yang menyentuh level terendah. Koreksi pada hari Jumat tersebut membuat selama pekan lalu indeks Dow Jones -4,58%, indeks S&P500 -5,05% dan Nasdaq Composite -5,6%. Inflasi AS pada bulan Mei tercatat pada level tertinggi sejak tahun 1981 pada level 8,6% yoy dan inflasi inti sebesar 6% yoy, di atas estimasi yang sebesar 8,3% yoy dan 5,9% yoy. Indeks Michigan Sentiment bulan Juni turun di bawah estimasi dan menyentuh level terendah. Data inflasi yang lebih tinggi tersebut meningkatkan kekhawatiran akan kenaikan suku bunga The Fed yang agresif dan akan berakibat pada resesi ekonomi. Yield US-Treasury tenor 10 tahun meningkat di atas level 3% dan menyentuh level tertinggi sejak tahun 2008. Harga minyak mentah melemah akibat kekhawatiran akan ekonomi dan lockdown yang diberlakukan oleh China. Sebaliknya harga emas menguat akibat meningkatnya kekhawatiran akan potensi resesi ekonomi.

Pada pekan ini pasar global akan mencermati pertemuan The Fed pada Selasa-Rabu, yang diperkirakan akan menaikkan suku bunga sebesar 0,5%. Pada pekan ini data indikator ekonomi AS yang akan dirilis diantaranya PPI, retail sales, housing starts, building permits dan initial claims.

Dari domestik data ekonomi yang akan dirilis diantaranya neraca perdagangan (Rabu), penjualan mobil (Rabu) dan penjualan sepeda motor (Kamis). IHSG pada perdagangan Jumat 10 Juni 2022 ditutup melemah 1,34% pada level 7086. Semua sektor melemah dengan kontribusi pelemahan terbesar pada sektor transportasi. Investor asing net sell Rp195,77 miliar. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 7000/6950 dan resistance 7100/7150. Stock pick: PGAS, ISAT, UNVR, INDF, KLBF, AKRA

This report is prepared strictly for private circulation only to clients of PT Waterfront Sekuritas Indonesia. It is purposed only to person having professional experience in matters relating to investments. The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. No warranty (express or implied) is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute our judgments as of this date, without regards to its fairness, and are subject to change without notice. However, none of PT Waterfront Sekuritas Indonesia and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied), its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither PT Waterfront Sekuritas Indonesia, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission there from which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. This document is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities. This firms and its affiliates and their officers and employees may have a position, make markets, act as principal or engage in transaction in securities or related investments of any company mentioned herein, may perform services for or solicit business from any company mentioned herein, and may have acted upon or used any of the recommendations herein before they have been provided to you. © PT Waterfront Sekuritas Indonesia 2022