Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street pada akhir pekan lalu ditutup melemah akibat sentimen negatif tutupnya Silicon Valley Bank setelah selama 48 jam mengalami kebangkrutan dan krisis modal. Otoritas AS menempatkan bank itu di US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) serta menyita asetnya. Silicon Valley Bank merupakan bank yang fokus pada pembiayaan startup dan menempati urutan ke 16 bank besar di AS berdasarkan aset. Ini merupakan kegagalan bank terbesar di AS sejak tahun 2008, yang memicu kekhawatiran pasar akan potensi penyebarannya ke bank lain. Sementara itu data nonfarm payrolls AS bulan Februari menunjukkan penurunan penyerapan tenaga kerja menjadi 311 ribu dari bulan sebelumnya 504 ribu, namun masih di atas estimasi yang sebanyak 205 ribu orang. Tingkat pengangguran naik dari 3,4% menjadi 3,6%. Kenaikan tingkat upah melambat menjadi 0,2%, lebih rendah dari estimasi 0,3%. Data ini sebenarnya merupakan faktor positif bagi pasar, karena menunjukkan indikasi pasar tenaga kerja dan inflasi mulai melambat, yang diharapkan dapat menjadi pertimbangan bagi The Fed dalam melanjutkan kebijakan kenaikan suku bunganya. Harga minyak mentah rebound didorong oleh data nonfarm payrolls tersebut. Sedangkan harga emas menguat tajam akibat meningkatnya permintaan akan safe haven karena kekhawatiran akan terjadinya gejolak di perbankan AS.

Data ekonomi AS yang akan dirilis pada pekan ini diantaranya CPI, retail sales dan PPI. Sedangkan dari domestik akan dirilis hasil RDG Bank Indonesia mengenai suku bunga dan neraca perdagangan.

IHSG pada perdagangan Jumat 10 Maret 2023 ditutup melemah 0,51% pada level 6765. Semua sektor melemah dengan koreksi terbesar pada saham sektor transportasi. Investor asing mencatatkan net buy Rp32,59 miliar termasuk transaksi di pasar non reguler. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 6730/6688 dan resistance 6780/6812. Stock pick: BMRI, BBRI, BBNI, TLKM, ASII, PTBA, BRIS, ANTM, INCO, MEDC, MDKA

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