Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street pada akhir pekan lalu ditutup melemah akibat munculnya kembali kekhawatiran akan dampak berlanjutnya kenaikan suku bunga The Fed, meskipun saham perbankan menguat setelah merilis laporan kinerja yang bagus mengawali earning season Q1/2023. Pejabat The Fed menyatakan bahwa kenaikan suku bunga lebih lanjut masih diperlukan untuk mengatasi inflasi, memadamkan harapan investor bahwa The Fed akan segera menurunkan suku bunga pada tahun ini. Data ekonomi yang melemah akhir-akhir ini menimbulkan harapan pasar bahwa The Fed akan segera menurunkan suku bunga. Data terbaru, penjualan ritel AS bulan Maret turun 1%, lebih rendah dari perkiraan yang turun 0,5%. Pernyataan pejabat The Fed tersebut memicu kenaikan yield US-Treasury sehingga mendorong koreksi pada saham-saham teknologi. Sementara itu memulai earning season Q1/2023 di Wall Street, JP Morgan, Citigroup dan Wells Fargo melaporkan kinerja yang di atas perkiraan. Harga emas melemah akibat penguatan dollar AS dan yield US-Treasury. Sedangkan harga minyak mentah menguat setelah IEA memprediksi permintaan global minyak mentah akan naik tahun ini karena pulihnya permintaan dari China.

Pada pekan ini pasar global akan mencermati perkembangan data ekonomi dan kelanjutan earning season Q1/2023. Data ekonomi AS yang akan dirilis diantaranya building permits, housing starts, initial claims dan existing home sales. Dari domestik akan dirilis data neraca perdagangan RI bulan Maret 2023 serta hasil Rapat Dewan Gubernur Bank Indonesia. Perdagangan di BEI pada pekan ini hanya akan berlangsung pada hari Senin-Selasa, karena libur Idul Fitri hingga tanggal 25 April 2023.

IHSG pada perdagangan Jumat 14 April 2023 ditutup menguat 0,49% pada level 6818. Saham sektor keuangan membukukan penguatan terbesar, sedangkan saham sektor transportasi mengalami koreksi terbesar. Investor asing mencatatkan net buy Rp1,833 triliun termasuk transaksi di pasar non reguler. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 6800/6760 dan resistance 6850/6885. Stock pick: BBRI, BMRI, BBCA, INCO, PGAS, ICBP, MDKA

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