Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street kembali ditutup melemah pada hari kedua, yang disebabkan oleh dirilisnya hasil risalah rapat pertemuan The Fed bulan Juli lalu yang mengungkapkan adanya diskusi kemungkinan untuk mulai mengurangi program pembelian obligasinya mulai tahun ini. Namun The Fed menekankan bahwa tapering atau pengurangan pembelian obligasi tersebut tidak berarti persiapan untuk menaikkan suku bunga dalam waktu dekat. Beberapa pejabat The Fed memilih untuk mulai melakukan tapering pada awal tahun 2022. Pejabat The Fed menilai bahwa tingkat ketidakpastian prospek ekonomi cukup tinggi, dimana adanya risiko penyebaran virus varian baru serta kenaikan laju inflasi. Namun mayoritas pejabat The Fed sepakat bahwa data tenaga kerja belum menunjukkan kemajuan yang memenuhi target The Fed untuk memutuskan mulai menaikkan suku bunga. Pasar juga menilai bahwa The Fed belum akan menaikkan suku bunga dalam waktu dekat. Menurut prediksi pasar, sekitar 50% peluang The Fed akan menaikkan suku bunga pada November 2022 dan 69% peluang menaikkan suku bunga pada Desember 2022. Sementara itu harga minyak mentah masih berlanjut melemah akibat kekhawatiran akan permintaan serta penguatan dollar AS. Sedangkan harga emas menguat karena kenaikan permintaan safe haven.
IHSG pada perdagangan Rabu 18 Agustus 2021 ditutup menguat 0,50% pada level 6118. Saham sektor keuangan membukukan kenaikan terbesar. Investor asing net buy Rp873,66 miliar. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 6050/6015 dan resistance 6145/6180. Stock pick: BBNI, TLKM, EXCL, JSMR, CPIN, BRPT

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