Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street pada perdagangan Rabu ditutup melemah akibat kekhawatiran akan prospek ekonomi. Kecemasan akan prospek ekonomi ini antara lain disebabkan oleh potensi kenaikan suku bunga The Fed lebih lanjut dan membalikkan langkah stimulus sebelumnya yang telah dilakukan selama masa pandemi. Bulan Juni juga dimulainya langkah The Fed untuk mengurangi portofolio surat utang yang ada di neracanya senilai hampir USD 9 triliun selama masa pandemi. The Fed juga memberi indikasi akan menaikkan suku bunga lebih lanjut hingga inflasi turun mencapai target The Fed. Sehingga pada pertemuan The Fed 14-15 Juni, berpotensi The Fed akan kembali menaikkan suku bunga sebesar 0,5%. Indeks ISM manufaktur AS bulan Mei naik pada level 56,1 dari 55,4 pada bulan sebelumnya. Yield US-Treasury tenor 10 tahun mengalami kenaikan.
Indeks bursa Wall Street pada perdagangan Selasa ditutup melemah. Indeks bursa Eropa juga melemah akibat data inflasi area euro mencapai rekor tertinggi mengalami kenaikan selama tujuh bulan berturut-turut pada level 8,1% di bulan Mei. Harga minyak mentah menguat setelah Uni Eropa sepakat untuk melarang 90% impor minyak mentah dari Rusia pada akhir tahun ini. Namun harga minyak mentah kemudian melemah setelah diberitakan OPEC mempertimbangkan untuk menangguhkan partisipasi Rusia dalam kesepakatan produksi minyak. Jika itu terjadi maka akan membuat negara OPEC lainnya meningkatkan produksi minyak.

Dari domestik, pada hari ini akan dirilis data inflasi Mei dan indeks PMI manufaktur. Inflasi bulan Mei diperkirakan secara MoM akan lebih rendah dibandingkan bulan April, namun secara YoY masih akan mengalami kenaikan. IHSG pada perdagangan Selasa 31 Mei 2022 ditutup menguat 1,58% pada level 7148. Saham sektor energi membukukan kenaikan terbesar, sedangkan saham sektor teknologi mengalami koreksi terbesar. Investor asing net buy Rp4,441 triliun. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 7065/7035 dan resistance 7150/7175. Stock pick: BBCA, BBRI, BMRI, ASII, ARTO, TLKM, TOWR, INDF, INCO, ANTM, TINS, ADRO

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