Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup mix, di mana indeks Dow Jones ditutup melemah terbatas, sedangkan indeks S&P500 dan Nasdaq Composite ditutup menguat tipis. Sentimen pasar masih meliputi hasil risalah rapat The Fed bulan lalu yang mengungkapkan bahwa The Fed mendiskusikan untuk mulai mengurangi pembelian obligasi senilai USD120 miliar per bulan pada tahun ini. Saham sektor teknologi, kesehatan dan konsumer mengalami penguatan. Sedangkan saham sektor energi, komoditas, otomotif dan penerbangan melemah. Harga minyak mentah berlanjut melemah, demikian juga harga logam, akibat kekhawatiran akan perlambatan ekonomi global tanpa dukungan pembelian obligasi dari The Fed. Pasar juga mencerna data ekonomi yang variatif. Data initial claims pekan lalu tercatat sebanyak 348 ribu, turun dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya 377 ribu serta di bawah estimasi 375 ribu. Sedangkan indeks Philadelphia Fed masih menunjukkan ekspansi, namun di bawah estimasi. Goldman Sachs memangkas proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi pada kuartal ini dari 9% menjadi 5,5% akibat penyebaran virus varian delta, menambah sentimen negatif. Harga emas melemah akibat penguatan dollar AS. Pasar akan mencermati pertemuan tahunan bank sentral di Jackson Hole, Wyoming, pada pekan depan untuk mencari indikasi langkah The Fed selanjutnya.
IHSG pada perdagangan Kamis 19 Agustus 2021 ditutup melemah 2,06% pada level 5992. Semua sektor melemah dengan koreksi terbesar pada saham sektor keuangan dan energi. Investor asing net buy Rp311,34 miliar. Fluktuasi indeks dalam kisaran lebar diperkirakan masih akan terjadi hingga beberapa pekan mendatang. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 5948/5885 dan resistance 6040/6070. Stock pick: TLKM, EXCL, SCMA, FREN, JSMR

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