Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup melemah akibat data pertumbuhan ekonomi AS triwulan I yang di bawah perkiraan namun laju inflasi masih bertahan. Pertumbuhan ekonomi AS pada triwulan I 2024 tumbuh 1,6%, di bawah estimasi yang sebesar 2,4%. Namun indeks PCE prices pada triwulan I naik 3,4% dari kuartal sebelumnya 1,8%. Data ini menimbulkan kekhawatiran pasar akan adanya kondisi stagflasi, yaitu di mana ekonomi melambat namun inflasi tinggi. Hal tersebut menimbulkan pertanyaan pasar bagaimana kebijakan moneter The Fed selanjutnya, apakah The Fed dapat melakukan penurunan suku bunga dalam waktu dekat jika inflasi masih bertahan di atas level target The Fed. Sementara itu harga minyak mentah dan emas menguat di tengah situasi antara data ekonomi yang tidak mendukung serta potensi meningkatnya ketegangan politik di Timur Tengah.

IHSG pada perdagangan Kamis 25 April 2024 ditutup melemah 0,27% pada level 7155. Saham sektor transportasi mengalami koreksi terbesar, sedangkan saham sektor consumer noncyclical membukukan kenaikan terbesar. Investor asing mencatatkan net sell Rp1,295 triliun termasuk transaksi di pasar non reguler. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 7130/7100 dan resistance 7190/7240. Stock pick: BMRI, BBCA, ISAT, BREN, AMMN, INDF, TKIM

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