Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup pada perdagangan akhir pekan lalu ditutup menguat setelah pidato Chairman The Fed Jerome Powell menyatakan bahwa The Fed akan mulai mengurangi program pembelian obligasi senilai USD120 miliar per bulan tahun ini namun tidak akan tergesa-gesa menaikkan suku bunga setelah itu. Pernyataan itu sesuai dengan antisipasi pasar sebelumnya. Powell juga menyatakan bahwa ekonomi AS telah mencapai titik tertentu yang tidak lagi membutuhkan banyak stimulus. Namun pengurangan pembelian obligasi tidak berarti indikasi The Fed akan menaikkan suku bunga langsung setelah itu, karena The Fed memiliki tes yang berbeda dan lebih ketat sebelum menaikkan suku bunga, diantaranya data tenaga kerja mencapai maksimum. Pernyataan tersebut meredakan kekhawatiran pasar, karena mengindikasikan The Fed tidak akan menaikkan suku bunga segera meskipun laju inflasi tinggi karena memprediksi inflasi tinggi hanya bersifat sementara. Indeks PCE bulan Juli naik 4,2% yoy dan 0,4% mom, yang merupakan kenaikan tertinggi sejak 1991. Meskipun The Fed tidak menyatakan mulai kapan tapering akan dilakukan pada tahun ini, pasar memprediksi The Fed dapat mengumumkan dimulainya tapering pada pertemuan The Fed 21-22 September nanti.
Data indikator ekonomi AS yang akan dirilis pada pekan ini diantaranya indeks harga rumah, consumer confidence, ADP Employment change, ISM Manufacturing index, construction spending, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate dan ISM non manufacturing index.
IHSG pada perdagangan Jumat 27 Agustus 2021 ditutup melemah 0,28% pada level 6041. Saham sektor infrastruktur mengalami pelemahan terbesar. Investor asing net buy Rp463,74 miliar, termasuk transaksi di pasar negosiasi. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 5985/5948 dan resistance 6110/6170. Stock pick: BBNI, BBTN, AGRO, KLBF, EXCL, INDF, ICBP

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