Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street pada akhir pekan lalu ditutup menguat signifikan setelah data ekonomi menunjukkan inflasi dan daya beli konsumen yang stabil. Indeks PCE prices bulan September, yang merupakan indikator inflasi bagi The Fed, sebesar 6,2% yoy sama seperti bulan sebelumnya. Indeks PCE core naik 5,1% yoy dari bulan sebelumnya 4,9% yoy. Sedangkan data personal income bulan September meningkat 0,4% mom sama seperti bulan sebelumnya. Data personal spending meningkat 0,6%, di atas perkiraan yang sebesar 0,4%. Data tersebut meningkatkan harapan pasar bahwa daya beli masyarakat masih cukup baik, inflasi akan segera melambat dan The Fed akan mengurangi laju kenaikan suku bunganya setelah pertemuan November. Indeks tetap menguat meskipun beberapa emiten teknologi merilis laporan keuangan di bawah estimasi. Sementara itu harga minyak mentah melemah karena China kembali melakukan lockdown di beberapa wilayah karena covid-19. Harga emas melemah akibat kenaikan yield obligasi mengantisipasi kenaikan suku bunga The Fed.

Pada pekan ini pasar akan menantikan hasil pertemuan The Fed pada Selasa-Rabu yang diperkirakan akan menaikkan suku bunga The Fed sebesar 0,75% menjadi 4%. Data ekonomi AS yang akan dirilis pada pekan ini diantaranya indeks ISM manufacturing, ADP Employment change, ISM non-manufacturing index, nonfarm payrolls dan unemployment rate. Dari domestik, pada pekan ini akan dirilis indeks PMI manufaktur, inflasi bulan Oktober, pertumbuhan ekonomi Q3/2022 dan cadangan devisa Oktober 2022.

IHSG pada perdagangan Jumat 28 Oktober 2022 ditutup melemah 0,50% pada level 7056. Saham sektor teknologi mengalami koreksi terbesar, sedangkan saham sektor transportasi membukukan kenaikan terbesar. Investor asing net buy Rp1,457 triliun termasuk transaksi di pasar non regular atas saham BMAS senilai Rp1,25 triliun. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 7010/6975 dan resistance 7108/7130. Stock pick: BBCA, BBRI, INDY, ADRO, ANTM, TINS, INCO, INDF

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